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October 08, 2004
Is Crowd Wisdom Predicting The Election Outcome In Bad Taste?
Posted by Stowe Boyd
Xeni Jardin asks over at Boing Boing: CNN's "Presidential Showdown Game":
Is it just me, or does this
CNN banner ad seem incredibly bizarre, and
CNN's online game to "Pick the winner of the popular vote in each state" to be in profoundly bad taste? The winner gets a gigantic HDTV. It feels weird. I mean, since when are these things "Presidential Showdowns?" My people call 'em "Elections."
Surowiecki's
The Wisdom of Crowds points out that large groups of people do really well at predicting the outcome of things like elections, sporting events, or how much the fat lady weighs. Actually much better than pundits or analysts do.
So while the feel of this whole endeaver may feel smarmy (to say the least) the reality is that we should look at the results very, very closely. If they really get tens of thousands of people guessing "how many jelly beans are in the jar?" the aggregated average is likely to be really, really close to reality.
Comments (1)
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1. Zbigniew Lukasiak on October 8, 2004 10:57 AM writes...
Just a nitpick - I think you meant Surowiecki.
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