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November 04, 2005
Mary Jo Foley on Microsoft Needs To Say No To Web 2.0
Posted by Stowe Boyd
Over at Microsoft Watch, Mary Jo suggests that Microsoft should stick to it's knitting, and resist the temptation to jump on the Web 2.0 bandwagon:
[from Microsoft Needs to Say No to Web 2.0
Only a few Softies seem to be all caught up in the Web 2.0 hype. The majority of them seem oblivious to the weak business ideas, buzzwords and bloviation that make me think "Bubble 2.0" every time someone mentions "Web 2.0."
Some Microsoft watchers may characterize Microsoft's failure to talk the Web 2.0/Internet economy lingo as proof that the Redmond software vendor has fallen behind the times.
Undeniably, Microsoft has had some infamous near misses when it comes to capitalizing on new industry trends. The company almost missed the Web/browser revolution. It came dangerously close to letting Google and Yahoo completely dominate search.
[...]
But just as there were some folks in the tech industry who wisely decided against trading their real, tangible jobs for spots at DrKoop.com, Kozmo.com and Pets.com, there are thousands of Microsoft employees who seem interested in building less-glamorous but more useful products like Visual Studio, Office and BizTalk Server.
[...]
If Microsoft officials tout any of its pending MSN services as examples of Web 2.0 deliverables, I'll take it as a sign that management has lost its way. There's no doubt that Microsoft needs to find a way to continue to grow in a world where its top two brands, Windows and Office, already have cornered in excess of 90 percent market share in their respective categories. And extending these applications with services is a sensible way to do this.
But Microsoft doesn't need to snap up a bunch of Web 2.0 startups, out-scour AJAX or invent the 38th signal to do this. The Redmond software maker just needs to stick to its knitting by developing new ventures that mesh with its established businesses. Microsoft needs to just keep saying no to Web 2.0, at least until Web 2.0 means something more than just "we want venture funding."
I think Mary Jo is wrong -- this is yet another opportunity for Microsoft to miss the changing of the tide -- but on the other hand, they have years to fall down that particular set of stairs, and even if they do misstep and fall, it doesn't mean they'll break their necks: there is going to be a long tail for Microsoft's existing products, even if the Web 2.0 revolution becomes really real, and not just a buch of cool experiments.
I'm betting on the innovators, and it's clear that Gatea and company are at least hedging their bets by investing in a "live" -- meaning Web-based -- version of Office. The buzz around Web apps that support Office-like functionality -- like Basecamp, Writely, Gmail, Google Base, and a slew of other offerings -- are obviously getting Redmond's attention, especially when growth rates on the Web can be astronomically fast.
Ina Fried [from Gates: We're entering 'live era' of software]
Gates likened the services push to other major strategy shifts at Microsoft, including its December 1995 move toward the Web and a June 2000 commitment to Web services.
The idea of an online adjunct to Office and Windows is not entirely new. The company already has its Office Online Web site that gets about 55 million unique users a month and offers items such like downloadable templates.
And in years past, Microsoft has attempted to build online alternatives to Office. One widely rumored project, developed in the late 1990s under the code name "Netdocs", was never made available.
One reason: Infighting between Office executives and Web advocates, according to sources at the time. David Smith, an analyst at Gartner, says that same tension still exists within Microsoft.
"There are different factions within the company, like before, and it is unclear what the corporate strategy is going to be," Smith said.
My hunch is that this is the outcome of the power struggle within Microsoft that recently led to the reorganization of 8 divisions into 3, and Ozzie's consolidation of pawer as the CTO instead of a CTO there (see Ray Ozzie and The Regrooving Of Microsoft). You'd be crazy not to stall this market, and not to try to provide your own off-ramp from desktop Office to web office solutions. Once they're gone, it will be hard to get them back, and Bill and Ray know that. Whether they can direct the energies of the company toward that goal, without ongoing infighting, remains to be seen.
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