Scoble has peered deeply in to the archaic model of Microsoft, and seen the light: Google.
[from Scobleizer - Microsoft Geek Blogger � The new Robert Scoble Services agenda]
Larry Page told me last week that teams inside Google often try to create projects to copy Microsoft. And he kills them. Why? Cause he knows that he will never get a big audience by copying something we do.
He says that Microsoft is basically running the '80s model of software: target the business buyer, the guy making the decision inside a company about purchasing software. Google is looking at the influentials, the artists, the young and hip: those whoe are inventing the future of software use, and by extension, the future of monetizing software.
One of the things I have turned up in my new series -- The New Visionaries: Rebooting the Web -- is this obsession with getting software into the hands of those most interested in fiddling with it, not business managers trying to make company buys. In particular, Satish Dharmaraj of Zimbra talked about departing from the old software model: making them buy a server license for tens or hundreds of thousands, and them charging 15% per annum for support. He argues that such a model is dead, for all intents and purposes.
Google knows that, and Microsoft doesn't.
Scoble's observations support my contention that Microsoft will be regarded, in the not-too-distant future, as one of the last of the industrial era companies, who struggled mightily to quash the Internet revolution, and lost. The fact that they are now trying to get hip to Web apps is another attempt by them to keep their constituency bottled up. But it won't work, and eventually (a few years down the road?) they will fall, just like IBM, DEC, and Sun fell, trying to hold onto an eclipsed model of business. There is a long tail for Microsoft to ride, but its really unlikely that they can get out in front of this revolution, and they certainly can't stop it.
[pointer from Evelyn Rodriguez to Hugh McLeod to Scoble]