2006 Prediction #1: The Year Of The Mac. Get Real: Stowe Boyd's Soapbox

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Stowe Boyd is a well-known media subversive, and an internationally recognized authority on real-time, collaborative and social technologies. His new blog is Message.

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December 30, 2005

2006 Prediction #1: The Year Of The Mac

Posted by Stowe Boyd

Yet another enormous Windows security mess, just before the New Year:

[from Windows Security Flaw Is 'Severe' by Brian Krebs/Washington Post]
A previously unknown flaw in Microsoft Corp.'s Windows operating system is leaving computer users vulnerable to spyware, viruses and other programs that could overtake their machines and has sent the company scrambling to come up with a fix.

Microsoft said in a statement yesterday that it is investigating the vulnerability and plans to issue a software patch to fix the problem. The company could not say how soon that patch would be available.

Mike Reavey, operations manager for Microsoft's Security Response Center, called the flaw "a very serious issue."

How long will the 1990s positioning of Windows last, given this sort of nonsense? Why do businesses cling to the idea that the Microsoft stack and Outlook/Exchange are essential cornerstones of modern business life?

I predict that 2006 will be a time when it becomes increasingly obvious that businesses are going to move away from Microsoft, and not return. Aside from the missteps and design flaws of Microsoft software itself, here's why:

Web 2.0 -- new online applications will provide capabilities that match Office and other Windows apps at a fraction of the price. Expect big announcements in areas like on-line presentation, online web conferencing, CRM, and other traditionally business-oriented sectors.
Apple and the Battle for the Living Room -- I am predicting that Apple's Kaliedoscope project, which couples a souped-up Mac Mini with DVR software and iPod docking station, will destroy Microsoft's hopes for living room/entertainment center dominance. This product will be a huge, iPod-sized hit, and all of a sudden millions of American hopes will have a Mac in the living room. Game over.

It will become obvious that Microsoft is a dinosaur, that a better Windows won't be enough, whenever they get around to releasing it, and the company will be looking at a long tail business plan, supporting all those companies too slow to transition to the LAMP stack and Macs.

tags: apple, microsoft, predictions+2006, battle+for+the+living+room, malware

Comments (78) + TrackBacks (1) | Category: Technology

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1. pwb on December 30, 2005 01:53 PM writes...

I agree to a point. I definitely see Microsoft getting pressed on the server side by LAMP for web-app deployment and by products like Scalix and Zimbra on the Exchange side of things.

On the desktop, it's less clear that there are viable alternatives. The Mac and Linux still have a ways to go before I think IT managers would feel comfortable rolling them out en masse.

The home is still up for grabs but I wouldn't count out Microsoft yet given how impressive Xbox is.

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December 30, 2005

2006 Prediction #1: The Year Of The Mac

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