Businessweek ran an interesting examination of the decreased use of email, where they detail the rise of alternatives to email and the reasons that email, well, frankly, sucks.
[from E-Mail Is So Five Minutes Ago]
Indeed, the onetime productivity wonder has turned into a maddening time waster. Despite the brawniest corporate filters, more than 60% of what swarms into corporate in-boxes is spam. Since so much of what's received involves scams about millions languishing in nonexistent bank accounts, interoffice status contests, and people plopping unwanted meetings onto Outlook calendars, the e-mail blow-off factor is rising. That's imperiling the medium's former dependability. In the long run, perhaps the biggest death knell for e-mail is the anthropological shift occurring among tomorrow's captains of industry, the text-messaging Netgens (16-to-24-year-olds), for whom e-mail is so "ovr," "dn," "w/e (over, done, whatever)."
No surprise, then, that on Rangaswami's orders, e-mail at Dresdner is beginning to fade as the collaboration tool of choice. Instead, workers there, as well as at places like Walt Disney (DIS ), Eastman Kodak (EK ), Yahoo! (YHOO ), and even the U.S. military, are ditching e-mail in favor of other software tools that function as real-time virtual workspaces. Among them: private workplace wikis (searchable, archivable sites that allow a dedicated group of people to comment on and edit one another's work in real time); blogs (chronicles of thoughts and interests); Instant Messenger (which enables users to see who is online and thus chat with them immediately rather than send an e-mail and wait for a response); RSS (really simple syndication, which lets people subscribe to the information they need); and more elaborate forms of groupware such as Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT ) SharePoint, which allows workers to create Web sites for teams' use on projects.
Though the likeliest scenario is that e-mail will remain the prime tool for notification and one-to-one communication, "a huge percentage of collaboration will occur outside of e-mail, with a continued rise in these other tools," says Clay Shirky, associate teacher in the interactive telecommunications program at New York University. "There's an enormous untapped value to be gotten by getting collaboration right."
It's amazing to think that even a year and a half ago, when I was predicting exactly this seismic change in the use of email at the Supernova conference (summer 2004), I was almost hounded from the podium. Even otherwise sensible industry luminaries in the audience chastized me: "Don't you know email is the killer app of the Internet?" one asked, snarkily, during the session I chaired on The Future Of Email. Well, its obviously the case that the killer app is, if not dead, then ailing at least.
The Gen Xers and those coming up behind them favor IM and MySpace-style social tools. Corporations are shifting in similar directions, toward social media oriented collaboration and other social tools, as well as realtime communication technology like video and voice IM.
It should be obvious that the only thing that email is well-suited for is things that look suspiciously like spam: broadcasting a static message to many, many people. The thing, however, that most of us want to do is completely different: we want to interact with those we know, not random email addresses, and share information about specific sorts of interests. When I want to think about music, last.fm is a much better experience -- incomporably better -- than email. Likewise, Flickr for photos. Or, blogs to interact in general on topics that the authors are interested in with those who believe that what they write has merit.
So this will be the year when it becomes truly obvious -- even to those dinosaurs who wanted to tar-and-feather me at Supernova -- that email's days are numbered. Not that it will disappear -- surface mail and fax will linger on due to the long-tail of communication media -- but it will clearly be a byway, and not the highway, for communication and collaboration.
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