Is Crowd Wisdom Predicting The Election Outcome In Bad Taste?
Xeni Jardin asks over at Boing Boing: CNN's "Presidential Showdown Game":
Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds points out that large groups of people do really well at predicting the outcome of things like elections, sporting events, or how much the fat lady weighs. Actually much better than pundits or analysts do.Is it just me, or does this CNN banner ad seem incredibly bizarre, and CNN's online game to "Pick the winner of the popular vote in each state" to be in profoundly bad taste? The winner gets a gigantic HDTV. It feels weird. I mean, since when are these things "Presidential Showdowns?" My people call 'em "Elections."
So while the feel of this whole endeaver may feel smarmy (to say the least) the reality is that we should look at the results very, very closely. If they really get tens of thousands of people guessing "how many jelly beans are in the jar?" the aggregated average is likely to be really, really close to reality.
The Standoff Between Blogs and Journalism
The Democratic National Convention is bringing the formerly simmering dichotomy between blogging and journalism to a boil. In my rant yesterday on Strange Attractor, I attacked a vocal critic of Suw Charman's gonzo introduction to the new blog, but granted that he was uncovering something central in the war of words between the two "sides" in this ideological battle: journalism's belief in objectivity and editorial oversight versus blogging's reliance on subjective voice and individual authority.
The flapdoodle that cousin danah has started about bloggers being dissed by the traditional media priesthood is exactly the same issue:
danah boyd[from Demeaning bloggers: the NYTimes is running scared]As i’ve written before, blogging is rhetorically situated between journalism and diarying. Most often, people label blogging as one or the other in order to degrade it. The NYTimes pulled this act today because they have a professional interest in portraying convention bloggers as “low-brow” and unworthy of reading, while the NYTimes will present the real “high-brow” convention story. By framing bloggers as diarists, the NYTimes is demanding that the reader see blogs as petty, childish and self-absorbed. They further perpetuate this view by pasting a picture of a youth on the front of the article to suggest that bloggers are all inexperienced and naive, further implying that their reports will not have the value of the more “adult” perspective of “real” journalists.
The entire spin of the article focuses on how bloggers are like children in a candy store - naive, inexperienced and overwhelmed by what is now available to them.
This latest skirmish was picked up by many, including over at The Industry Standard, where an optimistic, live-together perspective is being presented:
Esme Vos[from Journalists vs. bloggers: is that really so?]With the official recognition of bloggers as members of that sacred tribe, the Press, at the Democratic National Convention, a war of words has broken out between the high priests and the newbies. Danah Boyd feels that the New York Times ran a demeaning article about bloggers. Other bloggers have weighed in saying that the mainstream press is afraid of them.
I have a different opinion. Journalists who have written on muncipal wireless broadband tell me that my blog, Muniwireless.com, has helped them research and finish their stories quickly. Blogs that focus on specific issues are now great sources of information for journalists. By visiting one site (example: Corante) they have access to the experts and accurate information much more quickly than in the past.
Through blogs, newspaper and magazines also find freelance writers who can contribute articles on specific subjects. Granted a lot of blogs are just stream-of-consciousness diary entries, there are enough that can add value to a newspaper's content.
But I think nothing brings this controversy into sharper relief than the exchange earlier this week between David Weinberger and David Mears, a veteran journalist now turned "blogger" for AP, at a Media Circle breakfast.
David Weinberger[from The Media Circle]I asked Mears, "So, who are you supporting for president?" He said that he wouldn't tell us that because "how could you trust what I write?"
"Then how can we trust what you write in your blog?" I asked.
Mears gave an articulate defense of the canon of journalistic professionalism, and of the craft and value of objectivity.
Of course I respect that. How can you not? We need professional journalists. But for most blogs, we want to know what the writer's starting point is. That's not because we're subjective journalists. It's because a blog is a conversation among friends, and when you're arguing politics with your pals, it'd just be weird to refuse to say where you stand.
You're right, blogging's not "subjective journalism," per se. Blogging is gonzo journalism, where who we are, what we are, and what we care about is as much a part of the story as what we are writing about. And, of course, the same is true in so-called objective journalism, except the belief system and perspective that underlies the purported objectivity is implicit, and therefore cannot be addressed directly.
More importantly, the editorial agenda of the traditional media -- what has made modern journalism such a potent force -- is all about deciding what is important and how much of the front page or the news hour to devote to it.
The world of blogging brings these decisions back to the individual, based on the personal balancing of trusted voices. Each of us can decide what issues are most critical, how to apportion our attention to the affairs of the day, and which memes are worthy of follow-up. We are taking the remote control out of the hands of the editors, and they don't like it. It will eat into their advertising, big time. It is no wonder, given what is at stake, that the established priesthood will rail from their pulpits, and make light of what is a truly profound power shift in the making.
The Revolution WILL Be Blogged
I read a Mother Jones piece by George Packer on blogging, and although I think it really is more about political blogging, rather than blogging in general, I find myself being partially persuaded by Packer's characterizations, but not his conclusions:
I think that blogs definitely put the reader into the skin of the blogger, and that the gonzo experience -- seeing things through a particular set of eyes linked to a particular sensibility -- is central to blogging.George Packer[from The Revolution Will Not Be Blogged]The style of thickly descriptive storytelling, based on heavy reporting, immersed readers in the arc of an election year, achieving a sense of unity between the protagonists and the spectators, so that the campaign seemed to involve the whole of American society in the theatrics.
Blogs, by contrast, are atomized, fragmentary, and of the instant. They lack the continuity, reach, and depth to turn an election into a story. When one of the best of the bloggers, Joshua Micah Marshall of talkingpointsmemo.com, brought his laptop to New Hampshire and tried to cover the race in the more traditional manner, the results were less than satisfying; his posts failed to convey the atmosphere of those remarkable days between Iowa and the first primary. Marshall couldn't turn his gift for parsing the news of the moment to the more patient task of turning reportage into scenes and characters so that the candidates and the voters take life online. He didn't function as a reporter; there was, as there often is with blogs, too much description of where he was sitting, what he was thinking, who'd just walked into the room, as if the enclosed space in which bloggers carry out their work had followed Marshall to New Hampshire and kept him encased in its bubble. He might as well have been writing from his apartment in Washington. But the failure wasn't personal; this particular branch of the Fourth Estate just doesn't lend itself to sustained narrative and analysis. Blogs remain private, written in the language and tone of knowingness, insider shorthand, instant mastery. Read them enough and any subject will go dead.
I also think that Packer is right: blogs are indeed "atomized, fragmentary, and of the instant" and those are characteristics that typify successful media of our time. However, traditional journalism attempts to dissociate the author from the story. The pre-Heisenburg notion of an impartial, fact-finding, objective journalist who merely transcribes as history unfolds -- that idea is gone, or at least going.
While all experience of the world is private (until shared, at least), I don't believe we are trapped to find only stunted and insular insights in blogland. The form factor of blogging is shortish snippets, as opposed to longer pieces, and to gain a sense of the writer's mastery requires more of the reader than traditional journalism: the reader must return, and read again, and again, perhaps, to understand what the writer is up to. It is a serialized experience, and hoping that it could be condensed or smoothed into something else, smoothing into something more conventional means you are missing the point.
At any rate, no doubt about it, the revolution will be blogged, whatever revolution you may be thinking of. I guess in this case, the implicit argument is that the failure -- if that's what it is -- of Dean's populist revolt should be laid at the feet of the bloggers and the emergent democracy vanguard.
What may be missing from Packer's thinking is the participatory and involving aspect of most blogs -- something that is missed, or glossed over, if you apprach them with the eyes of a traditional reader. Every blog implies a community of readers, and their involvement -- to the degree that it jumps out -- changes the experience of reading totally, turning what may be thought of as "atomized, fragmentary, and of the instant" into something else entirely.
Estonia - Leading The Way For E-Government?
A recent post from Loic Le Meur on what's the state of the practice in Estonia makes me cringe when I think about the US and e-government, which seems focused on Patriot Act style surveillance and security rather than anything to make life better at the grassroots, like mobile phone payment of parking fees.
[from Estonia: 40% of the street car park payments made via mobile phone in some cities]In the summer of 2001, the Government created a web page Täna Otsustan Mina ("I Decide Today"). Ministries upload all their draft bills and amendments there, allowing people to review, comment on and make proposals on the legislative process as well as propose amendments to existing legislation. Ideas that gain substantial support will be reviewed by competent bodies. Approximately 5% of all ideas are used as amendments to bills.
In April 2002 the Look @ World Foundation started an ambitious training project – the goal being that by spring 2004, 100,000 Estonians will have been taught basic computer and Internet skills. In October 2003 more than 75 500 people have passed the training. Primary feedback indicated that 59 per cent of the participants have become regular internet users.
[Note: Big Brother-esque activities are apparently going on in Estonia, too, however.]
Since January 2002, the Citizenship and Migration Board (www.pass.ee) has been issuing a new primary domestic identification document - the ID card. In addition to many advanced security features, the card has a machine-readable code and a microchip containing the visual data on the card and two security certificates (long number series), to verify the individual and supply digital signatures. Possible future uses of the card include integration of ID cards and banking cards and various access cards. By the end of 2003, 350,000 ID-cards were issued.
Blog Advertising: Cheap and Effective
Frank Barnako of CBS Marketwatch included the following blurb in today's email blast:
"Blogs pay off for Kentucky candidateI am particularly interested in these stories since we are ramping up sponsorships here at Get Real, and I am being asked by potential sponsors for the potential return on investment. Knowlegeable users will seek insightful commentary, and will reject paper-thin journalism. Print is not dead, but knee-jerk, analysis-free journalism is.A $2,000 investment in advertising on a dozen blogs helped fuel a successful Congressional campaign for Ben Chandler. The marketing effort for the Democratic candidate in Kentucky's sixth district returned $80,000 in two weeks, money that was funneled into radio and cable spots and is credited for Chandler's late surge to victory on Tuesday, Wired news reported. Campaign manager Mark Nickolas figured readers of political blogs, while not in the district, were likely to be interested in the race to help a southern Democrat recapture a seat in the House. Blogs included in the campaign were the left-leading Daily Kos, Political Wire and Eschaton."
Bottom-up Trends Into Topdown: Death To Deanism
Lessig points out that a grassroots campaign that decides to retreat into centralization will fail:
"Fire someone who built the most extraordinary grass-roots organization in history, and hire a Washington lobbyist in his stead. Now we’re making progress."
Dean is Rallying a "Stupid Network"
Good piece at Wired by Gary Wolf making the parallel between the Dean emergent democracy network and Isenberg's "Stupid Networks" concept.
Make the network stupid.[pointer from David Weinberger.]The Dean campaign is a network rather than an army, and that is one of its strengths. But it's a stupid network, and that's also a strength. Stupid is meant in the technical sense, defined by David Isenberg in his classic telephony paper, "The Rise of the Stupid Network." Isenberg advanced the principle that under conditions of uncertainty, a network should not be optimized for any set of uses presumed to be definitive. Instead, the network should be as simple as possible, with advanced functionality and intelligence moved out to its edges. For the Dean campaign, this means that hundreds of independent groups are organizing with very little direction from headquarters.
Dean's network may not be globally optimized toward getting him into office: there are likely to be hundreds or thousands of locally optimized purposes that partitions of the network dream up.